Assam Climate Change Knowledge Portal

District-wise Vulnerability Profile of Assam

Figure: Map of Districts of Assam with vulnerability ranking (low – moderate – high – vulnerability)

Assam Climate Change Management Society (ACCMS), Govt. of Assam and State Climate Change Cell, Assam carried out a District-level Vulnerability Assessment of Assam based on the guidelines of the Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India with support from the National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE).

This assessment is a part of the report titled ‘Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Adaptation Planning in India using a Common Framework’ published by the Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India.

This district-level vulnerability assessment identifies the most vulnerable districts of Assam with respect to current climate risk and the main drivers of vulnerability and prepares a relative vulnerability profile of all the districts of Assam. The integrated vulnerability assessment was adopted which is based on biophysical, socio-economic, and institution and infrastructure-related indicators.

The following 15 (fifteen) state-specific indicators were selected to conduct this assessment:

Percentage of Households having Monthly income of highest earning household member Less than Rs. 5,000 in rural areas (2011)	The proportion of rain-fed agriculture	Forest area per 100 rural population (2019)
Percentage f Women’s participation in the workforce	Average person days per household employed under MGNREGA	Road Density
Infant Mortality rate	Percentage of Households with Electricity (NHFS)	Percentage HH with an improved drinking water source (NHFS)
Percentage HH using improved sanitation facility (NHFS)	Percentage of Female literacy rate (NHFS)	Coefficient of variation/ yield variability of food grains

Based on the indicators’ functional relationship with vulnerability (either positive or negative relationships), normalized values were calculated against each of the indicators. A vulnerability index was prepared based on the normalized values.

Class	District	Rank
High Vulnerability	Dhubri	1
	Darrang	2
	Karimganj	3
	Kokrajhar	4
	Golaghat	5
	Goalpara	5
	Hailakandi	6
	Morigaon	6
	Tinsukia	7
Moderate Vulnerability	Chirang	8
	Sonitpur	9
	Bongaigaon	10
	Cachar	11
	Karbi Anglong	12
	Nagaon	12
	Dibrugarh	13
	Barpeta	13
	Sivasagar	13
	Dhemaji	14
	Lakhimpur	14
	Jorhat	14
	Baksa	14
	Dima Hasao	15
	Udalguri	15
Low Vulnerability	Nalbari	16
	Kamrup	17
	Kamrup Metropolitan	18

Figure: Distribution of districts on a vulnerability Scale of Very Low to Very High Vulnerability

Major drivers of vulnerability:

In order to find the major drivers from the calculated NV a criterion was adopted by setting up a threshold value of 0.8499 and considering the sub-indicators which showed maximum numbers of districts above the threshold level.

It is evident from the assessment that five (05) out of the 15 indicators viz. The percentage of area covered under centrally funded crop insurance (PMFBY, WBCIS), Proportion of rain-fed agriculture, Forest area per 100 rural population, Percentage of Women’s participation in the workforce, and Road Density are the major drivers of vulnerability.

Figure: Drivers of vulnerability at the district level

What is Vulnerability Assessment?

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2014), climate change is already occurring and impacting natural ecosystems and human societies.The impact or risk of climate change is the result of the interaction of climatic hazards, exposure, and vulnerability of the communities and systems. Among the three factors, vulnerability, which is determined by the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the systems, can be addressed to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change. Thus, there is a need to assess the vulnerability of natural ecosystems and socioeconomic systems and undertake measures to reduce the vulnerability.

“The first step towards adaptation to future climate change is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate variability.” (IPCC, 2014)

Vulnerability is conceptualized as an internal property of a system that is a function of its current endogenous lack of (adaptive) capacity to overcome the adverse impact (its sensitivity) of a stressor. In anticipation of a climatic hazard or a non-climatic hazard stressor. Therefore, the vulnerability of a natural ecosystem or socio-economic system is assessed as a function of its sensitivity (that determines the first-order impact of a hazard/stressor on the system) to such hazard/stressor and its lack of (adaptive) capacity to overcome such sensitivity.

Figure: The Risk Management and Assessment Framework, IPCC 2014

Vulnerability assessment would assist in:

1. Adaptation planning of developmental programs and projects

2. Prioritisation of adaptation interventions and investment at national, state, district, and village levels

3. Developing adaptation proposals for Green Climate Fund, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Adaptation Fund, bilateral agencies, etc.

4. Meeting the requirements of the Paris Agreement, Article 9 requires an assessment of the impact and vulnerability

5. Designing and implementing the ‘Nationally Determined Contributions’ component which aims to better adapt to climate change by enhancing investments in development programs in sectors vulnerable to climate change

6. Revision of the State Action Plan on Climate Change for assessing vulnerability and prioritizing adaptation programs and projects.

(Source: Climate Vulnerability and Risk Assessment: Framework, Methods, and Guidelines for the Indian Himalayan Region)